Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
