Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
